Sina reminder: This article belongs to the research report column, only analysts personal views and opinions on a stock, is not an official news report, Sina does not guarantee its authenticity and objectivity, all effective information about the stock to Shanghai and Shenzhen The announcement of the Exchange prevails. Investors are advised to pay attention to the risks.
Orient Securities Xu Jun
Basic conclusions:
The company's sales of molded bottles account for about 75% of China's market share, and we expect the development of the entire molded bottles to show a steady development trend. In 2007, affected by the sales growth of downstream companies, it is expected that the sales revenue of Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass (12.22, -0.84, -6.34%) molded bottles will reach 500 million yuan, an increase of about 10% year-on-year. In addition, the sales of the company's type of glass molded bottles are also from scratch. It is expected that sales will reach 30 million yuan in 2007. The future revenue growth will mainly depend on the sales progress of overseas customers. We expect that the contribution to the company's performance before 2009 will remain very limited.
It is estimated that 700 million brown bottles will be produced in 2007 and the annual sales revenue will reach 200 million yuan, an increase of 100% over the same period of last year. We are concerned that the gross profit margin in 2007 will decline because the export tax rebate rate for all the company’s export products including brown bottles will drop from the original 13% to 5% from July 1. The decline in export tax rebates will directly affect Mao’s export tax rebate rate. The interest rate level is expected to be 40% in 2007.
The production capacity of butyl rubber plugs is 4 billion/year, and it has been operating at full capacity in 2006. At present, the production capacity of the entire industry is in surplus. It is expected that the gross profit margin in 2007 will be 15% (the gross margin of 2006 is 12.7%) and no significant improvement will occur.
The forecasted earnings per share of Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass in 2007 and 2008 were 0.48 yuan and 0.56 yuan respectively, and the dynamic price-earnings ratios in 2007 and 2008 were 26.3 and 22.6 times respectively. We believe that the company's leading position in China's medical packaging industry will be maintained for a long time, and the valuation level should be equal to that of all pharmaceutical companies. However, considering that the company's growth in the next few years is still not high, we estimate the 30-fold earnings per share in 2008. Value, 6-month target price of 16.8 yuan, for the first time to give "overweight" rating.
Molded bottles will show steady growth in the future
Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass is the largest manufacturer of medical glass in China. It has the advantages of cost and technology in China. Among them, the successful development of a class of medical glass in the second half of 2006 has reached an international advanced level. It is the sixth in the world and the first in China to master this technology. Business. The company's main products include molded bottles, brown bottles and butyl rubber plugs. The molded bottles are mainly used for the packaging of ordinary antibiotic powder injections. The production capacity reaches 9 billion per year and the production is basically at full capacity.
The company's sales of molded bottles account for about 75% of China's market share, and we expect the development of the entire molded bottles to show a steady development trend. In 2007, affected by the prosperous sales of downstream companies, it is expected that the sales revenue of Shandong Medicine Glass Molded Bottles will reach 500 million yuan, an increase of approximately 10% year-on-year. The main reason that led to the downstream growth was the promotion of the new rural cooperative medical system throughout the country. The demand for generic drugs, especially antibiotics, exceeded the growth in previous years. In addition, the sales of the company's type of glass molded bottles are also from scratch. It is expected that sales will reach 30 million yuan in 2007.
The company’s main raw materials, including coal and soda ash, have experienced relatively large increases in prices in the past few years. In addition to improving efficiency, the company’s response to rising costs (estimated that the company’s production efficiency is 70% higher than the industry’s average) is also in Baotou. Establish a branch (capacity of 3 billion/year). The local production cost in Baotou is much lower than that of the company headquarters. For example, the cost of coal is almost half that of the headquarters, and the cost of electricity is also nearly 1/3 cheaper. In addition, the Baotou branch also enjoys a 15% income tax concession, which also disguisedly increases the profitability of molded bottles. Due to the above-mentioned reasons, the profitability of molded bottles has been at a relatively high level. In 2006, the gross profit margin even increased by 43.4%. We do not expect large fluctuations in profitability in the next few years. The level of 2006.
The growth in 2007 mainly comes from the brown bottle brown bottle
It is mainly used for oral liquids for health products. With the improvement of living standards, the consumption of brown bottles will grow rapidly. Compared with China, many overseas countries have a high standard of living and have a large brown bottle market. In February 2007, additional brown-brown bottle projects were put into production. Production capacity increased from 560 million to 970 million/year (most of which were high-end, light-weight, thin-walled brown bottles). The company has further requirements based on market demand. Increase production capacity. More than 70% of the brown bottles are exported. Since the price is only about 1/8 of the international market price, it is very competitive and the export growth is very rapid. Currently, it has opened up markets such as Korea, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, and the United States. According to the current production status, we expect to produce 700 million brown bottles in 2007. It is expected that the annual sales revenue will reach 200 million yuan, an increase of 100% year-on-year. The gross profit rate of brown bottles in 2006 was 43.83%, an increase of 5.75 percentage points over the same period of last year, which was mainly due to the gradual reflection of the scale effect. We are concerned that the gross profit margin in 2007 will decline because the export tax rebate rate for all the company’s export products including brown bottles will drop from the original 13% to 5% from July 1. The decline in export tax rebates will directly affect the gross profit margin. Level, it is expected that the gross profit margin in 2007 will be 40%.
Price war pressure low butyl rubber plug gross margin
The production capacity of the company's butyl rubber plug is 4 billion per year, and it has been operating at full capacity in 2006. The butyl rubber plug can be divided into antibiotic powder plugs and large infusion plugs depending on its use. The main advantage of the company is the leading enterprise of molded bottles. The sales channels for antibiotics and antibiotics are basically the same. The company's good relationship with more than 800 downstream customers for many years is unmatched by other competitors. Therefore, the promotion of butyl rubber plugs can make use of existing sales networks to quickly establish sales channels, as well as reduce a large number of sales costs. The price of butyl rubber, the main raw material, has been slowly declining since the beginning of this year, and it has dropped from 43,000 yuan/ton in 2006 to 38,000 yuan/ton, which is more than 10%.
In addition, the company also actively adjusted the product mix and increased the proportion of large infusion plugs with high gross margin in 2006. The proportion of infusion plugs is expected to reach more than 30% (only 10% of total output in 2006). Although affected by the above favorable factors, our forecast for the butyl rubber plug gross margin is not optimistic. The gross profit margin in 2007 is expected to be 15% (2006 gross margin was 12.7%), mainly due to the current capacity of the entire industry. In a surplus state, the country’s production capacity has reached 25 billion a year, while the demand is only about 17 billion a year. Although the company's production capacity is the largest in the country, it has a relatively late start compared to the two major competitors and has no obvious leading edge in technology. In the case of overcapacity, competitors also made corresponding adjustments in the competition and increased the production of large infusion plugs. As a result, the sales price of large infusion plugs continued to decline since 2007, and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass did not realize profits from butyl rubber plugs. The idea of ​​a substantial increase in capacity.
It is expected that the industry will experience a competitive process with the survival of the fittest and the profitability of the entire industry will increase. It is expected that the integration process will take at least 1-2 years.
It will take time for a class of glass to become a new growth point
A company's glass bottle will become the growth point of the next performance. The product is mainly used for biological products, and it is expected that the gross profit rate can reach 60%. The current biomolar bottle project has already started trial production. The 2007 additional project will be completed in 2008. Due to the characteristics of the biological product itself, the stability of the glass bottle is more demanding and only one type of glass can be used. Prior to the successful development of a type of glass by Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, all glass bottles for biologics used in China need to be imported. The company took the lead in the domestic research and development of a successful type of molded glass bottle, the technical level has been basically equivalent to the international counterparts. Since the domestic market is small, it is estimated that the annual consumption will be 50 million. The company's main target is the overseas market, and the sales volume of a single US market is 2 billion. For a faster occupation of the market and the company’s cost advantage, the company’s sales price for a class of glass bottles is at least 20% lower than that of its overseas counterparts, which is beneficial to the development of future overseas markets. We believe that the road to overseas exports will not be very flat. The main reason is that the cost of biologics is high. The price of a bottle is often as high as several hundred yuan. Therefore, the price sensitivity of packaging materials is much lower than that of common antibiotics, so the company's low cost The advantages will be difficult to manifest in a short time. In addition, due to the long mixing time of biologics bottles and drugs, it takes about 6 to 12 months. Therefore, we believe that the sales revenue of one type of glass will reach 30 million yuan. The future revenue growth will mainly depend on the sales progress of overseas customers. We expect that the contribution to the company's performance before 2009 will remain very limited.
Valuation and investment advice
We predict that the EPS of Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass in 2007 and 2008 will be 0.48 yuan and 0.56 yuan respectively, and the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2007 and 2008 will be 26.3 and 22.6 times respectively. We believe that the company's leading position in China's medical packaging industry will be maintained for a long time, and the valuation level should be equal to that of all pharmaceutical companies. However, considering that the company's growth in the next few years is still not high, we estimate the 30-fold earnings per share in 2008. Value, 6-month target price of 16.8 yuan, for the first time to give "overweight" rating.
risk
The speed of new products introduced into the market, especially the type of glass bottles, was lower than expected, as the company’s existing products basically entered a period of steady growth. If the company is to maintain a high growth rate, new products will be the main driving force for future growth. Affected by the products of other companies, the decline in the prices of the company's products was mainly due to butyl rubber plugs exceeding our expectations. If the price of a product falls significantly, the company’s profitability will be lower than our forecast
Multifunctional waterproof makeup bag, waterproof shopping bag, waterproof wash bag, waterproof mommy bag
Dongguan Jinying Handbags Co.,Ltd , https://www.jinyingnicebag.com