The dreamy rise of 2017 has passed, and this year's paper price is chilling. So far, the price of waste paper has fallen by a third from 3,000 yuan per ton this year; the price of commonly used corrugated paper has also turned down from the high point of May. On the 29th, Tianjin Xiaolong lowered the price of corrugated paper and cardboard paper by 300 yuan/ton.
Did not rise up! Xiaolong lowered the price of corrugated board and cardboard paper 300 yuan / ton!
Nine Dragons Paper said at the previous performance briefing that the paper price will be raised in October. However, the fact is that at the end of the month of 10., we received the news that Tianjin Xiaolong cardboard and corrugated paper were lowered by 300 yuan/ton.
Tianjin Nine Dragons Paper Cattle Card was lowered by RMB 300/ton on the 29th. At present, the factory includes tax and exchange rate: 玖龙牛å¡çº¸160g/170g reported 5,000 yuan / ton, 200g reported 4950 yuan / ton; Hailong cattle cardboard 130g reported 4350 yuan / ton, 160g / 170g reported 4300 yuan / ton, 190g / 200g/250g reported 4250 yuan / ton; Dilong cattle cardboard 130g reported 4300 yuan / ton, 160g / 170g reported 4250 yuan / ton, 200g / 230g / 250g reported 4200 yuan / ton. The actual order price varies from customer to customer.
The price of Tianjin Nine Dragons Paper Corrugated Paper was lowered by RMB 300/ton on the 29th. At present, the factory tax-included wire transfer reference price: 玖龙瓦楞 paper 70g reported 4200 yuan / ton, 90g reported 4,000 yuan / ton, 110g reported 3800 yuan / ton, 120-170g reported 3650 yuan / ton; Hailong corrugated paper 120g / 130g / 140g reported 3600 yuan / tonne. The actual order price varies from customer to customer.
It has been observed that since May, the ex-factory price index of the two industries of paper and paper products has been decreasing, and only the pulp manufacturing price index has risen. However, in September, the ex-factory price of pulp manufacturing, which had been rising in the previous period, also declined, and the decline in the manufacture of paper and paper products also increased significantly in the month.
Falling paper prices have discouraged paper companies. According to the latest industrial industry statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September, the output of paper and paperboard (excluding raw paper processing) of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 9.899 million tons, down 4.7% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to June reached 88.664 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year. Even if the output is reduced, it does not prevent the price of paper from falling.
How high is the climb, how bad it is. The current situation of the paper industry should start from the endorsement of the two-year environmental protection limit and the restriction of waste paper import policy.
The last round of paper price hike began in the second half of 2016. With the strictening of environmental protection policies, the demand for various paper products in the country has increased greatly. The paper industry has been incapacited due to environmental protection requirements, and the price of paper has risen sharply.
In addition, in July 2017, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Implementation Plan for the Reform of the Import Management System for the Prohibition of Foreign Waste Entry into the Solid Wasteâ€. The plan stated that the unsorted waste paper “prohibited imports†before the end of 2017. It should be noted that since 2000, almost all of China's new cardboard papers have been derived from recycled fiber. However, due to the sorting and recycling of domestic waste paper, China's papermaking enterprises have relied on imported recycled paper to maintain production. Therefore, as soon as the news came, the price of paper would usher in a full-scale increase. In addition, fuel and transportation costs have all contributed to the rebound in the previous round of paper prices.
Relevant statistics show that in the first half of 2016 and 2017, the revenue of papermaking owners' business increased by 7% and 14% respectively, and the total profit increased by 16% and 41% respectively. The industry's prosperity has rebounded significantly.
However, entering 2018, the situation is very different. According to the newly published Catalogue of Imported Waste Management, among the 32 kinds of solid wastes that were listed as banned from import on December 31, 2019, waste paper is not included. Analysts believe that this also means that by 2021 China will still allow the import of waste paper. Affected by this, the national waste price has been falling all the way, which directly led to the pressure on the price of raw paper.
Under the violent fluctuation of paper prices, paper enterprises can not escape the fate of quilt
Paper price fluctuations can be described as "a few happy families" for companies in the industrial chain.
During the rise in paper prices, paper companies are naturally unsatisfied, but for the downstream printing and packaging enterprises, it is a “chicken ribâ€, because once the raw materials rise too fast, these enterprises have already signed due to long-term contracts and cannot change prices at will. The situation of sharply reduced profits.
According to an industry insider, during the last round of paper price hikes, there were more than 400 packaging factories in Shanghai Pudong New Area, accounting for more than half of the packaging plants in the new district.
In addition, another major drawback of the sharp fluctuations in paper prices is that companies cannot accurately grasp the price cycle. Once the price falls and the production capacity is just too much, paper companies are often quilted.
For example, in printing single-use paper coated paper, the price of coated paper once soared to 7,800 yuan/ton in 2008, and then fell sharply. In 2010, it rose to 7,600 yuan/ton, but then fell to around 4,000 yuan/ton. According to reports, in 2009, Chenming Paper, one of the largest coated paper companies in China, spent 7.8 billion yuan to build 800,000 tons of coated paper capacity, and put it into production in April 2011. In 2012, the company fell into a quagmire of losses and had to “slim down†and transform.
However, with the announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Friday that the pulp futures will be listed on November 26 this year, the company can't wait to participate.
According to reports, Chenming Paper disclosed on the evening of October 22 that the wholly-owned subsidiary had signed the “Equity Transaction Contract†and acquired 45% of the equity of Jinxin Futures at the low price, becoming the first papermaking enterprise to hold the futures company. . Chenming Paper said that the acquisition will help the company further integrate financial resources, enhance the company's overall strength and comprehensive competitiveness, and bring better economic benefits to the company.
According to statistics, in 2017, a total of 6,681 paper and paper products enterprises above designated size in China, the total income of the main business of the whole industry was 1.52 trillion yuan. In 2017, China's total pulp production (including wood pulp, non-wood pulp and waste paper pulp) was 79.49 million tons, and apparent consumption was 105.1 million tons, of which wood pulp production was 10.5 million tons and consumption was 31.52 million tons.
In addition, China's annual consumption of various types of paper is 110 million tons, and the average per capita is 77-78 kilograms, which is higher than the world average of 57 kilograms.
According to industry insiders, pulp is an important raw material in the paper industry. The market is highly market-oriented, with diverse market players and frequent price fluctuations. At the same time, China is becoming the main driving force for the new demand for commercial pulp in the world. The dependence of commercial pulp on foreign countries is high, and it is necessary to use strategic thinking to improve the right to speak.
Pulp futures trading, it is difficult to use the pricing of the routine
The industry believes that the introduction of pulp futures at this time is not only an objective need for the development of China's pulp industry, but also a powerful measure for the service of pulp and paper enterprises in the futures market and to avoid price risks. It is important in the service industry price risk management and the pricing power of China's pulp industry. significance.
“Wood pulp is one of the world's major bulk trade commodities that is not traded in mature futures markets. Among the world's high-volume imports of global bulk commodities such as iron ore, soybeans, rubber and wood pulp, only wood pulp currently has no futures market. Western Europe and the United States are the three major pulp markets," said Gao Linlin, an analyst at Guotai Junan Futures.
It is understood that pulp is the raw material of papermaking. According to the process, pulping can be divided into chemical pulping, chemical mechanical pulping and mechanical pulping. The pulping raw materials usually include wood, bamboo and non-wood (including rice straw, Reed, fern residue and waste paper.
“From the perspective of supply and demand data, the global commercial pulp market tends to balance supply and demand. However, the market is dynamic. When analyzing and forecasting, we need to pay attention to: delay or cancellation of new production capacity, exchange rate changes, and sluggish commodity pulp market leading to existing production capacity. Stoppages and abnormal spreads of different types of pulp lead to different supply and demand results, closure of small factories in China, increase in operating rates of large plants, increase in the use of wood pulp, and conversion of different pulp production capacities,†Gao Linlin pointed out.
It is understood that the upcoming pulp contract for futures investors will be marked as bleached softwood pulp (contract code SP), and the delivery product will be valid for 2 years. At present, the main import ports are distributed in Qingdao, Changshu, Shanghai, Tianjin and Huangpu. According to the import data of last year, Qingdao Port imported 1.8 million tons, accounting for 22%; Changshu Port imported 1.1 million tons, accounting for 13.5%; Shanghai Port imported 660,000 tons, accounting for 8%.
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